Goldman Sachs: US S&P PMI's - FJElite
Bottom Line
The S&P Global US services PMI declined in March, slightly below consensus expectations, and its underlying composition was weak, as both the new business and employment components edged down. The input prices and output prices components increased to their highest level since May 2025 and August 2022, respectively. The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI increased, slightly above consensus expectations. Its underlying composition was mixed, with increases in the output and new orders components but a decline in the employment component.
Key Numbers
S&P Global US services PMI 51.1 for March (preliminary), median forecast 52.0, prior 51.7
S&P Global US manufacturing PMI 52.4 for March (preliminary), median forecast 51.5, prior 51.6
Main Points
- The S&P Global US services PMI declined by 0.6pt to 51.1 in March, slightly below consensus expectations. The underlying composition was weak, as both the new business (-0.4pt to 52.3) and employment (-0.8pt to 49.6) components declined. The input prices (+3.1 pt to 62.8) and output prices (+1.6pt to 58.8) components increased to their highest level since May 2025 and August 2022, respectively. The future output index declined by 0.8pt to 62.6 (NSA).
- The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9pt to 52.4 in March, slightly above consensus expectations. The underlying composition was mixed, as the output (+0.2pt to 52.9) and new orders (+2.0pt to 52.8) components increased but the employment component declined slightly (-0.2pt to 50.3). Both the input prices (+4.1 pt to 65.5) and output prices (+4.5pt to 59.3) components increased. The future output index increased by 0.9pt to 71.0 (NSA).
- Commentary from S&P highlighted that "the flash PMI survey data for March signal an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.” It also added that "companies are reporting a hit to demand from the additional uncertainty and cost of living impact generated by the conflict" and that they “are meanwhile building safety stocks amid concerns that the war may lead to more protracted supply issues and price rises while trimming headcounts to reduce overheads.”