JPMorgan Analyst Review of News - FJElite

Escalation, more protracted conflict a continued drag on growth expectations especially if another leg higher in energy prices, not much to like out there, of course the snap back risk is large IF there is any inch towards negotiation again but hard to sit here positioned for that outcome. Given weekend developments somewhat surprised to see the dollar not receive more of an uplift especially with fixed income appearing to start to wake up to cracks in the growth picture last week (reacting less to oil and more to equities) but this does feel like a rather slow moving car crash right now alongside some concern medium term around confidence in the Greenback itself maybe playing some part also. Holiday shortened week with payroll data on Good Friday ( ! ! ), month/quarter end also and I know I keep saying it but it is extremely difficult to have any sort of edge here.

Same overall view here, still trying to play long yen (break of 160 rejected with upping of rhetoric, BOJ minutes reads hawkish, reaction function seems to be shifting from inflation to growth) on the crosses primarily versus dollar, sterling and the Loonie and short small eurliuf.

Still plenty of questions as to why the euro feels quite resilient in the face of such a challenged environment, I don't really have much explanation apart from the above opening paragraph.

The ECB speakers as the week went on were more balanced with even Schnabel sounding less hawkish than usual, maybe some comfort the ECB might not repeat past mistakes hiking into a crisis?! Nonetheless given the uncertainty levels only going higher hard to see much of a sustained bounce, stagflation the word on everyone's lips with German State inflation out in a while not exactly a great setup for the Eurozone and drift lower feels likely unless WE see something drastically change in the flow dynamic here (most sectors of our franchise continued to buy dollars Friday). Next pivotal level on the downside in and around 1.14 (ytd low 1.1411, summer 25 low 1.1392).