JPMorgan's March Summary - FJElite

In the US, macro focus took somewhat of a backseat in March, given escalations in the Middle East. The US is generally considered to be: 1) more resilient to the global energy shock vs global peers; and 2) the Fed is seen as more likely to lean towards the employment side of its mandate, looking through the energy shock and focusing more on the hit to activity. Labour market momentum continued to soften in March, with February NFPs coming in notably weak (-92k vs 55k expected, 126k prior). The Unemployment Rate also ticked higher to 4.4% (from 4.3%). Claims held steady, though, coming in between 205k-213k in March. On the inflation front, Feb CPI was stable at 2.4% YoY, but tariff impacts showed up in a hot PPI print (3.4% YoY vs 3% expected, 2.9% prior). Meanwhile, Q4 GDP was revised down in the second reading, from 1.4% to 0.7% q/q saar. Downward revisions were broad-based, but still reflect some effects from the government shutdown. While these data pre-date the Middle East war, it is notable that US Sentiment was relatively resilient. Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in above expectations at 91.8 (vs 87.9 expected and 91 prior) and the drop in PMIs was broadly contained, with Composite printing at 51.4 (vs 51.9 prior) - still in expansionary territory.