Morgan Stanley on US CPI - FJElite

We expect core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m (2.6% y/y), slightly below February. We forecast core goods in positive territory, but Likely close to the 0% mark. We think the tariff pass-through continued in March, but we also anticipate soft cars inflation and deceleration in apparel after February's strong reading. Core services decelerate due to seasonal payback and despite stronger rents and positive airfares inflation. Headline comes at 0.84%m/m (3.3%y/y, NSA Index: 330.337) as higher oil boosts gasoline - this would be the highest reading since the disruption in oil markets related to the Russia- Ukraine conflict in 2022.