ANZ on Oil Outlook - FJElite
Base case scenario: assumptions and outlook
• If the US blockade of Iranian ports worsens supply shortages, prices would rise and more countries would need to implementing measures to curtail consumption.
• Economic and political distress would mount on both sides of the conflict, leading to a compromise that would likely see the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June Even so, exports would be severely constrained in Q2. Prices would ease to below USD100/bbl
• The supply crunch may start to ease in H2 2026, both in terms of flows through the strait and the restart of upstream production However, some permanent loss of capacity would see supply disruptions persisting through to the end of the year and into 2027.
• The ongoing threat of a sudden closure of the strait would keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, which would keep Brent crude above USD90/bbl for the remainder of 2026
• Elevated prices would remain a feature of the oil market into 2027. Inventory releases would be exhausted, leaving the market the sole driver of rebalancing We would expect Brent crude to sit around USD80-85/bbl dunng this period.