Unicredit Preview: Trump-Xi Summit: Rivalry Stays Managed, Not Resolved - FJElite

The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14th-15th is likely to be about keeping tensions contained rather than delivering any major breakthrough. Since their last meeting in October 2025, the trade truce has held only in fragile form, and the agenda is now even more complicated because of the US-Iran war. Washington wants Beijing to use its links with Tehran to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while China wants the US to scale back support for Taiwan after last year’s record arms package.

The most likely outcome is a limited détente rather than a grand bargain. That would mean vague coordination on Iran and Hormuz, an agreement to keep the trade truce alive, Chinese pledges to buy more US agricultural and energy products, no real progress on Taiwan, and a commitment to keep talking. In other words, the summit is more likely to keep rivalry below boiling point than to meaningfully improve the relationship.