ING: The CHF - FJElite

Despite uncertainty in the Gulf, EUR/CHF has crept back up to the 0.92 area. Driving this move, we believe, is the sell-off in the interest rate market, where Swiss market interest rates lag any global trends. Our team sees the risk of a hawkish ECB meeting this Thursday, which means that the pricing of three rate hikes over the next 10-12 months can stick.

In the background, the Swiss National Bank continues its position of an increased willingness to intervene in FX markets. First quarter FX intervention data will be released on 30 June and will likely show a decent pick-up after a very quiet couple of years for the SNB in this space.

The above should keep EUR/CHF supported near 0.92 and the surprise package would be a move to 0.93 on a hawkish ECB story.