Bank of America: US Jobs and Euro Area Inflation in Focus - FJElite

In the US, May payrolls are expected to show another solid increase, with nonfarm payrolls seen at 95k and private payrolls at 100k, comfortably above breakeven. Education and health are expected to remain the main source of job gains, followed by trade and transport, while warm weather should continue to support leisure, hospitality, and construction. With claims still benign and ADP data firm, the risks are tilted to the upside. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%, with participation also seen unchanged.

In the euro area, headline CPI is expected at 3.2% year-on-year and core at 2.3%, with some upside risk to both. The ECB consumer expectations survey will also be watched closely after last month’s jump in the three-year ahead measure. Markets will also look through April M3 and bank lending data for signs of softness. It may still be early for geopolitical stress to show up clearly in the data, but any weakness there would add to concerns about the growth outlook.