Fed Rate Expectations Post Stronger Than Expected NFP - FJElite

05 Jun 2026 13:09Elite Sentiment US Bonds US Indexes USD
Data
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls Actual 172K (Forecast 88k, Previous 115k, Revised 179k)
  • US Unemployment Rate Actual 4.3% (Forecast 4.3%, Previous 4.3%)
  • US Private Payrolls Actual 120k (Forecast 89k, Previous 123k, Revised 177k)
Sentiment
  • Traders price in additional Fed tightening after the May jobs data.
  • US interest rate futures raise odds of a December rate hike after jobs data to 63% vs 48% just before.
  • Traders price in Fed rate hike by January vs March previously.
  • US rate futures still price in Fed on hold in June policy meeting