Deutsche Bank's View on US Eco Data - FJElite

So what a backdrop for the main economic event of the week, namely Wednesday's May US CPI report. The timing is critical with the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting, and Kevin Warsh's first as Chair, a week later. For a while now the case for hiking has looked notably stronger than the case for a cut and last Friday's payrolls has hugely reinforced that. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172k, comfortably ahead of consensus expectations of 88k, with private payrolls of 120k also exceeding forecasts (89k). It left the 3 month average for payrolls at a 2 year high of +188k. In addition, net revisions to prior months were positive by around 93k, adding to the impression of underlying momentum. While a large share of the upside came from leisure and hospitality hiring and a sharp increase in local government employment, job gains were not narrowly concentrated. The three month diffusion index rose to 53.8, its highest level since March 2024, signalling a broadening in employment growth across sectors.

Against this backdrop, attention now shifts squarely to inflation. Our economists expect energy to play a key role in May's CPI, with a sharp increase in petrol prices (around +6.8% seasonally adjusted) lifting headline inflation more than core. They forecast headline CPI to rise by around +0.55% month on month (after +0.6% in April), while core CPI is expected to increase by a still firm +0.22% (after +0.4%). On a year on year basis, headline CPI is projected to move back up to around 4.3%, from 3.8%, while core inflation is expected to edge higher to roughly 2.9%.