Berenburg: AI Capex Is Doing Less for US Growth Than It Seems - FJElite

The main point is that the AI investment boom is not translating into robust US growth in the way many assume, because most of the spending by hyperscalers is going into imported hardware rather than domestic production. That means the apparent boost from surging tech capex is largely being offset by higher imports, leaving little net support for GDP. Instead, real household consumption has still been the main growth engine since late 2022, accounting for most of the expansion, though that support also looks set to fade after a temporary lift from tax refunds.

The broader concern is that once consumer support weakens, US growth is likely to slow from around 2% to 1.5%, with flat real incomes, low savings, and stalling population growth all acting as headwinds. Outside tech, business investment has flatlined, while higher capital costs and policy uncertainty are crowding out other spending. The longer-term upside is that the AI buildout should still help drive wider productivity gains by making AI cheaper and more accessible, but that benefit may be global rather than uniquely American.