Goldman Sachs on US Recession Risk - FJElite

Global Macro / Jan Hatzius: We cut our 12-month US recession risk estimate from 25% to 15% (US-lran agreement, drop in Energy prices. No FED Hikes even though the first FOMC meeting under Warsh was more hawkish (GDP growth still moderate at 2% and inflation likely to fall). Our ECB and BoE views are likewise dovish relative to market pricing. China's growth is likely to rebound in Q3 from the recent weakness, but the economy remains deeply unbalanced. A calmer cyclical environment should support equities, though it is getting harder to justify further large gains