Goldman Sachs: US Trade Deficit - FJElite
- The trade deficit widened by $23.0bn to $77.6bn in May, slightly below expectations. Total goods imports increased by $12.3bn to $317.0bn, the highest level except for the first quarter of 2025, driven by broad-based increases across industrial supply, capital goods, and consumer goods categories. Total goods exports declined by $11.3bn, driven largely by decreases in exports of nonmonetary gold and computers and electronics. The services surplus increased slightly by $0.6bn.
- US oil exports have risen notably since the start of the Iran war. However, much of this increase appears to have been driven by drawdowns in both commercial inventories and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which would imply a broadly neutral impact on GDP. Excluding imports and exports of gold—which are excluded from GDP—as well as the recent increase in oil exports, the trade deficit widened to $99.3bn in May (vs. $84.3bn in April).
- Following this morning’s data, we left our Q2 GDP tracking forecast unchanged at +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.0%.
