Goldman Sachs: Brent Back Near $80 as Hormuz Risks Rise Again - FJElite

Brent moved back toward $80 a barrel after Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was over following the latest escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. Drone strikes hit one LNG tanker and two oil tankers near the Omani coast, prompting a US response that included ending the waiver on Iranian oil sales and launching strikes on Iran. Iran then retaliated with strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, while the US carried out further attacks. The renewed tanker attacks highlight that crossing risks remain elevated, and that uncertainty alone may keep shippers cautious and weigh on near-term Hormuz flows.

Oil flows from the Persian Gulf had recovered to above 80% of pre-war levels shortly after the Strait reopened, but have since slipped back to the low-70% range following the latest attacks. Exports through Hormuz had rebounded to around 10mb/d, about half of pre-war levels, before falling back to roughly 8.3mb/d. The main constraint still appears to be Iran’s willingness to allow a full recovery in flows rather than transport capacity. The outlook remains two-sided: if talks continue, the Iranian oil waiver is restored, and shippers receive better security assurances, flows could still recover by end-July; if negotiations fail and attacks escalate further, Persian Gulf flows could fall again.