Citi on Global Economics - FJElite

Our global central bank monitor highlights that monetary policy is looking less supportive this year than prior to the conflict in the Middle East, as the conflict has kept inflation risks elevated and limited the scope for easing. Markets continue to underscore these inflationary risks, with pricing for major DM central banks still less supportive than prior to the conflict, even after some retracement for the ECB, BoE, and BoC as oil prices fell from their Spring peaks. Notably, markets see the Fed, ECB, and BoE all delivering a hike by year-end. In tandem, our year-end forecasts for policy rates in 17 of the 27 major central banks that we forecast are higher than prior to the conflict. All told, we project that most central banks will either hike rates or remain on hold this year.