Bank of America NFP Preview - FJElite

We expect July payrolls to rise by a below-consensus but still solid 80,000, with private payrolls increasing by 95,000. Benign claims data and steady labour-market indicators point to continued job growth, though summer distortions, softer ADP data and a possible reversal in local government hiring create some downside risk.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% as participation rebounds, although strong household employment could keep it at 4.2%. A report in line with these forecasts would suggest that labour-market downside risks have largely faded and support the case for three further rate hikes this year.