ING: The EUR - FJElite
in the past year, tUK/usu nas movea on average u.¿% in tne nour arter tne ni-h release, i ne past two prints both saw moves of 0.4%, though, positive in July and negative in June. Those moves were also larger than in other recent instances with comparable payroll surprises.
That fits into our perception of greater data-related FX volatility under Warsh. And we suspect the market’s sensitivity to the release could be even larger this time, given the lack of conviction about the Fed’s September meeting.
In our baseline scenario, we expect EUR/USD to stick to a 1.150-1.155 range into next week’s US CPI. Our short and medium-term views are unchanged: we're still leaning bullish on EUR/USD with 1.16 one-month and 1.18 year-end targets.