EIA STEO August Report

11 Aug 2026 16:04Energy
  • Raises estimates for Middle East shut-in crude production as severe Strait of Hormuz transit constraints are assumed to persist through August.
  • Expects most regional crude production to return near pre-conflict levels in early 2027, though around 600,000 bpd of disruptions are expected through end-2027.
  • Forecasts Brent crude averaging around $85/b in Q3 2026 before falling to $69/b in 2027 as inventories rebuild and production recovers.
  • Expects US commercial crude inventories to remain below the five-year low through end-2026 amid strong exports, reduced imports and high refinery runs.
  • Forecasts US LNG exports at 16.5 Bcf/d in Q3, slightly lower than previously expected due to Freeport LNG maintenance.
  • Cuts Q3 Henry Hub natural gas price forecast to $2.87/MMBtu, 50 cents below its July forecast, amid weaker LNG feedgas demand and robust production.
  • Cuts 2027 Texas electricity demand growth forecast to 6% from 14% following the pause on new data center development.
  • Sees solar and natural gas driving US electricity generation growth, while coal generation continues to decline.
  • Raises its 2026 US coal export forecast to 102 million short tons following strong exports in April and May.