ING: The EUR - FJElite
We retain a preference for EUR/USD upside following the latest US data. That view is rooted in our Fed assessment outlined above, though it must be balanced against the risk that renewed escalation in the Gulf could provide fresh support to the dollar.
Our target for the coming weeks remains 1.160, followed by 1.17 in autumn and 1.18 by year- end. The absence of a clear catalyst, however, may keep EUR/USD range-bound for longer, while vols test recent lows.
We will be watching closely for another test of 1.150. Our bias is that buyers would re-emerge there, potentially nudging the dominant trading range higher to 1.150-1.160.