JPMorgan's View on US CPI - FJElite

US CPI came in close to expectations: headline and core rose 0.07% and 0.22%, respectively, with the year-ago rate ticking down a tenth in both (to 3.4% and 2.5% respectively). The three-month run rate of core CPI has now slipped below the 2%ar target rate, but the 0.22% monthly gain we’re tracking in core PCE suggests that the Fed’s preferred measure should be tracking a still-elevated 2.8%ar three-month gain and a 3.3%oya increase in July. • The report is unlikely to sway the three July FOMC dissenters from voting for a hike in September. The majority that voted for a hold is also not likely to be swayed to hike following this and last Friday's employment report. Team expects Dec hike.