Goldman Sachs: Q2 Earnings Point to Solid Growth, but Consumer Risks Are Building - FJElite

With most of the S&P 500 now reported, Q2 results point to strong underlying activity. Real revenues excluding energy rose 6.4% year-on-year, the fastest pace since 2021, reinforcing the view that economic growth remained solid through the quarter.

Consumer commentary also improved, helped by fiscal support despite high oil prices, but the outlook is softer. Real consumer spending is expected to slow to just 1-1.5% in the second half of 2026 as the saving rate remains low, real disposable income growth stays weak, tax refund support fades and elevated oil prices continue to weigh on households.

More than $100 billion in tariff refunds has been treated as a one-off windfall. Companies have used the cash for marketing, cost relief, lower prices, buybacks and some customer refunds, but management teams stressed that the benefit is temporary. The sectors receiving the largest refunds are also seeing the biggest price increases and the weakest forward margin revisions.