UBS: Oil Demand Estimates Converge Higher - FJElite

The gap between the main energy agencies’ oil demand estimates has narrowed significantly since the end of 2025. OPEC’s numbers are broadly unchanged, while the IEA has revised 2024 demand higher by 0.94mbpd and 2025 demand by 0.92mbpd. The IEA’s 2024 estimate is now above OPEC’s, while its 2025 estimate is only slightly lower. The EIA has barely revised its forecasts and remains well below the other two, but further upward revisions are expected.

Because supply estimates have changed little, the stronger demand numbers have shifted the market balance. Both OPEC and the IEA now see the oil market as undersupplied in 2024, while the EIA still sees a modest surplus. The repeated upward revisions reinforce the view that oil demand remains more resilient than expected, with emerging markets likely to keep driving growth. The IEA now sees demand at 105.7mbpd in 2027, already above the 105.6mbpd level it previously expected only by 2029.