Goldman Sachs on Potential Treasury Actions on Iran Announcement - FJElite

Oil / Macro: Today's focus is on the Treasury's Iran sanctions announcement. The market question is whether Treasury goes directly after Chinese refiners, potentially opening another layer of friction ahead of September US-China meetings. 1 increasingly think oil was central to what went wrong last week. The stagflation basket went vertical as higher energy collided with weaker underlying growth. Outside the AI capex vertical, there isn't that much to sing about... softer labor, a mediocre consumer and fading fiscal/inventory tailwinds. At the same time we are still trying to spend $ltn+ on AI infrastructure next year, so nominal GDP remains supported. But I digress... oil is the cleaner variable. If the US genuinely wants to calm the bond market, lower energy prices are probably the most practical route. A S10 move lower in oil would help inflation expectations, the consumer, long-end yields and probably equities.