UBS on USDJPY - FJElite

27 Aug 2026 13:11Analysis Commentary Elite
  • We maintain our USDJPY forecasts at 160 (December 2026), 158 (March 2027), and 158 (June 2027), and extend the 158 target to September 2027, reflecting our base case of prolonged range­trading.
  • US factors remain dominant, where a fairly resilient US economy and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve bias continue to keep USDJPY supported. A larger USDJPY decline toward the low 150s would likely require markets to price in Fed rate cuts, which remains a high bar for now.
  • Domestic factors in Japan remain unlikely to drive significant JPY strength. While the BoJ may accelerate the pace of tightening slightly to contain yen weakness, we do not expect policymakers to pursue or welcome a disorderly yen appreciation.