Credit Agricole NFP Preview - FJElite

August payrolls are expected to rise by 65,000 after the 23,000 decline in July, pointing to some stabilisation rather than a return to the stronger spring pace. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 4.2% from 4.1% as participation rebounds, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and slow to 3.1% year-on-year from 3.2%.

A report in line with expectations would likely leave the Fed focused more on inflation than the labour market. Another downside surprise could reduce the odds of a September hike, while a stronger-than-expected jobs report would mainly reinforce the idea that inflation remains the key policy constraint.