Goldman Sachs on NFP - FJElite

04 Sep 2026 11:52Elite Release Prep US Bonds US Indexes USD
  • We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 40k in August, somewhat below consensus of +55k. On the negative side, big data indicators of job growth slowed sequentially. Additionally, August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias in initial prints over the last decade. On the positive side, layoffs remain low and there is potential scope for rebounds in employment in leisure and hospitality and local educational payrolls after large declines over the past couple of months.
  • We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.1% (in line with consensus), reflecting the stabilization in continuing claims. We forecast a 0.4% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings, above consensus, reflecting positive calendar effects.
  • The alternative measures of employment growth we track slowed modestly from their prior month’s pace: the indicators we track averaged +31 k, compared to +65k in July.