UBS: Week Ahead - FJElite

US CPI is the key event risk: Friday's US core CPI release (11 September) will be key for market pricing of a potential September Fed hike. With the Fed entering its communication blackout period next week, this is the final major data point before its next policy decision.

ECB communication matters more than the hike itself: While a September rate increase is fully priced, the euro's reaction will likely hinge on President Lagarde's forward guidance. Maintaining a hawkish stance on inflation risks would help support the EUR even if the ECB is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

FX opportunities remain selective ahead of CPI: We favor a short EURILS position, as our opportunity of the week. Within yield-enhancement strategies, we like selling upside risk in EURSEK.