Goldman Sachs August CPI Preview - FJElite

August core CPI is expected to rise 0.23% month on month, broadly in line with the 0.2% consensus, leaving the annual rate at 2.4%. Headline CPI is seen rising 0.39%, close to the 0.4% consensus, with higher energy prices doing most of the work. The forecast would also be consistent with a roughly 0.22% increase in core PCE.

At the component level, autos are expected to be mixed, with used-car prices up 0.5%, new cars up 0.1% and auto insurance down 0.2%. Shelter inflation should remain relatively benign, with OER up 0.22% and rents up 0.23%, continuing the broader slowdown in housing inflation. Airfares are the main upside standout, forecast to rise 4%.

Looking beyond August, monthly core CPI is expected to remain around 0.2% over the next couple of months as shelter continues to cool and tariff-related price pressure fades. The main upside risk is oil: if recent disruption and higher crude prices persist, they could start feeding more materially into the inflation outlook.