Société Générale: Constructive Outlook for Oil, Gold and Copper - FJElite

For oil, the base case assumes a narrow US-Iran agreement around the November midterms, followed by a broader resolution by year-end that gradually eases Hormuz-related supply disruptions. Brent is expected to average around $100 a barrel in September and October, with significant spikes still possible, before falling toward $80 by year-end. In 2027, prices are seen broadly steady near $80 before easing toward $77 in the second half as non-OPEC supply grows, OPEC+ cuts unwind and demand moderates.

Gold remains supported by recovering retail demand, a softer dollar and resilient physical buying, with prices seen reaching $4,750 an ounce by Q4 2026 and moving above $5,000 during the second half of 2027. Copper also remains constructive, with ex-US inventories tight and demand supported by grids, electrification and AI infrastructure. The Q4 2026 target is raised to $14,750 a tonne, with prices seen rising toward $15,250-$15,500 by Q4 2027.