Goldman Sachs on US-China Summit - FJElite

Xi’s September 24 visit to the US is expected to reinforce the current framework of “managed competition” rather than produce a broader reset. The main focus is likely to be extending the existing trade and rare-earths truce, with limited index-level market impact given low expectations. The bigger risk point comes on November 10, when the BIS Affiliates Rule suspension, China’s rare-earth pause and the 178-item Section 301 exclusion list all expire.

AI remains on a separate escalation track. The US is expected to push for cooperation on monitoring AI-directed cyber attacks while maintaining restrictions on more advanced technology. Core disputes over semiconductors, AI and critical minerals are therefore likely to remain unresolved. For markets, the clearer opportunities remain in AI sovereignty, semiconductor localisation, economic security and reindustrialisation, while cross-border AI, data-centre and other geopolitically exposed sectors remain more vulnerable if tensions re-escalate.