JPMorgan on US Midterms & VIX - FJElite

US MIDTERMS: Vol screens cheap into the event: options price only a modest election premium and the VIX curve is well below prior midterm setups despite macro overhangs (rates, Iran/oil, AI). We recommend buying VIX Oct call spreads for a pre-election vol lift and/or macro flare-up. Regardless of the final result, shifting policy expectations could catalyze single stock volatility and dispersion, especially in Healthcare, Technology and Financials where outcomes intersect with the AI cycle. We construct a vol swap dispersion basket across these sectors optimized for carry, entry level, and policy sensitivity.