IMF Forecasts

13 Oct 2026 02:00Energy Forex
  • Projects Japan's economy to grow 0.7% in 2026, 2027
  • expects bank of japan to raise interest rates gradually towards a neutral setting
  • Projects global headline inflation to increase to 4.7% in 2026, ease to 4.1% in 2027, matching 2025 level
  • Forecasts assume Strait of Hormuz reopening resumes in march 2027 with return to broad pre-war conditions by October 2027
  • Forecasts Euro Area 2026 growth at 1.1% vs 0.9% in July due to resilience in Germany, Italy, Spain
  • Forecasts China 2026 growth at 4.5%, 2027 growth at 4.0%, both down 0.1 percentage point from July forecasts
  • Forecasts U.S. 2026 growth at 2.3%, unchanged from July forecast and 2025; 2027 U.S. growth forecast at 2.3% vs 2.2% in July
  • 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from about 54 countries in April forecast
  • Forecasts 2027 global growth at 3.4%, unchanged from July, vs 2025 growth of 3.5%
  • Scenario of unwinding of AI investment and sharply lower asset prices reduces global GDP output by 1.1% by 2028
  • Projects average oil price at $96 per barrel in 2026, $87 in 2027 vs July forecasts of $89 and $78, respectively
  • Scenario of worsened Middle East war with $130 per barrel oil through Q1 2027 cuts global growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026, 0.5 percentage point in 2027
  • Forecasts 2026 global real gdp growth at 3.1% versus 3.0% in July forecast as AI investment tempers energy price shock in key economies
  • Warns bond market risks have risen since last stability report in April